Teaser Calculator

A teaser is a parlay where you move every line in your favour by a fixed number of points — usually six in football — and accept a shorter price in exchange.

All the legs still have to win. A two-team six-point teaser might pay −120 instead of the +264 the untouched parlay would, and the question is whether six points is worth that much price.

Usually not. The exception is the argument Stanford Wong made: teasing a small favourite down through both 3 and 7, the two most common NFL margins, is worth far more than six generic points. A tease crossing neither number rarely is.

A teaser moves every leg of a parlay in your favour by a fixed number of points — typically six in football — and charges you a shorter price for the privilege. All the legs still have to win. The question is whether the points are worth more than the price.

Start with the ticket price. A two-team six-point teaser at −120 needs the whole ticket to land 54.5% of the time to break even. Take the Nth root and you get the rate each leg needs if they were all equally likely and independent — about 73.9% in that case.

That 73.9% is the bar, and it is the number worth carrying around. It sounds unreachable for a point spread, and for a randomly chosen leg it is. The entire teaser argument — the one Stanford Wong made and everyone has argued about since — is that a specific kind of leg clears it: a small favourite teased down through both 3 and 7, or a small underdog teased up through them. Those two numbers carry so much of the NFL scoring distribution that crossing both is worth far more than six generic points.

Note the direction as you add legs. At the same ticket price, more legs means each one has to be better, not worse — the Nth root of a number below one rises with N. Books price additional legs generously enough that this is easy to misread, and it is why three-and four-team teasers are usually worse bets than two-teamers even though they pay more.

The assumption doing the work is independence, and it is false. Teaser legs move together: the same blowout that covers one teased favourite often covers another. Correlation cuts both ways, but it means the per-leg figure is a benchmark rather than a probability, and the ticket’s real chance is not the product of four independent numbers.

A two-team, six-point teaser at −120, $100 stake. It pays $83.33 profit if both legs land.

The ticket needs to win 54.5% of the time. Each leg therefore needs 73.9% under the independence assumption — a demanding bar for a point spread.

Which legs clear it? The classic answer is a favourite of 7.5 to 8.5 teased down to 1.5 to 2.5, or an underdog of 1.5 to 2.5 teased up to 7.5 to 8.5. Both cross 3 and 7, the two most common NFL margins, and historically those legs have hit at rates in the mid-seventies. A generic six-point tease that crosses neither number does not come close.

Add a third leg at +160 and the per-leg requirement barely moves — 72.7%. The payout looks much better and the bar has not softened, which is the trap.

What win rate does a teaser leg need?

Around 72–74% for standard football teasers, and it barely moves with the number of legs. That is a demanding bar, and only legs crossing both key numbers have historically cleared it.

Why does adding legs not lower the per-leg requirement?

Because the Nth root of a number below one rises with N. Books price extra legs generously enough that the payout grows a lot while the bar stays put — which is what makes bigger teasers look better than they are.

What is a Wong teaser?

A six-point tease that crosses both 3 and 7 — typically a 7.5-to-8.5 favourite down to 1.5-to-2.5, or the underdog equivalent. The argument is that those two numbers carry so much of the NFL scoring distribution that crossing both is worth more than the price charged.

Do teaser legs really behave independently?

No. Game script correlates them — the same kind of result that covers one teased favourite tends to cover another. The per-leg figure is a benchmark to judge legs against, not a probability the ticket actually has.

Are teasers a good bet?

Specific ones, sometimes. Crossing 3 and 7 in the NFL has historically been profitable, though books have adjusted teaser pricing over the years in response. A tease that does not cross both key numbers is almost always a bad bet at these prices.

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