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Parlay vs Straight

Same selections, same money, two ways to bet it. This is what each one pays at every possible result.

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Same money either way: all of it on the parlay, or split evenly across straights.

Parlay pays

$595.79

+596 combined, against $90.91 if you split the same $100.00 across 3 straight bets and every one of them wins. The parlay pays 6.6× more — and needs all 3 to land rather than paying out on each.

Combined price
6.958 · +596
Parlay break-even rate
14.37%

The chance the ticket needs, as implied by its own price.

Equivalent per-leg rate
52.38%

If every leg were the same, this is how often each would have to win. Compare it to each leg's own break-even rate below.

Stake per straight bet
$33.33
Straights, all winning
$90.91
Capital at risk
$100.00

Identical for both strategies. Only the payout shape differs.

What each number of winning selections pays under both strategies
WinnersStraight betsParlayDifference
0 of 3−$100.00−$100.00$0.00
1 of 3−$36.36−$100.00−$63.64
2 of 3+$27.27−$100.00−$127.27
3 of 3+$90.91+$595.79+$504.88
Each selection's own break-even win rate
SelectionPriceBreak-evenStraight profit
Selection 1-11052.38%$30.30
Selection 2-11052.38%$30.30
Selection 3-11052.38%$30.30

Straight bets have 8possible results, not two — which is why the middle rows show a range rather than one figure when the legs are priced differently. The table is a payout structure, not a recommendation: which strategy is better depends on probabilities this calculator has not been given, and correlated legs make the parlay’s combined price a poor guide to its true chance.

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How it works

You like three teams. You can put your money on one parlay that needs all three, or split it across three straight bets that pay independently. Same opinions, same capital, completely different payout shapes — and this table shows both at every number of winners.

The parlay pays far more when everything lands. Three −110 legs combine to about +596, so $100 returns $596 profit against roughly $273 from three straight bets. That is the pitch, and it is real.

What the pitch omits is the rest of the table. Two winners out of three pays the straight bettor something and pays the parlay bettor nothing at all. One winner limits the straight bettor’s loss to about a third of the stake; the parlay is already dead. The parlay trades away every partial result in exchange for a bigger payout on the one result where everything works.

Underneath the shape difference there is a cost difference. A sportsbook holds around 4.5% on a single −110 market. Parlaying three of them compounds that hold to roughly 12.7%, because the margin on each leg multiplies rather than adds. That is the honest reason parlays are promoted so heavily, and it does not depend on your selections being wrong — it is priced in before you pick anything.

None of which makes parlays indefensible. If you are genuinely confident in every leg, the compounded price can still be worth taking, and a small stake on a long shape is a legitimate thing to want. But the decision should be made against the whole table, not against the one row the book advertises.

The formula

parlay price   = Π decimalᵢ
parlay profit  = capital × (parlay price − 1)
parlay pays    = only when EVERY leg wins

straight stake  = capital / n
all-win profit  = Σ (stake × (decimalᵢ − 1))
partial result  = winners' profit − losers' stakes

hold compounds:
  one −110 market      ≈ 4.5%
  three −110 parlayed  ≈ 12.7%

Straight bets have 2ⁿ possible results, not two — which is why the middle rows are ranges when the legs are priced differently.

A worked example

Three selections at −110, $100 total.

As a parlay: combined price 6.96, so all three winning pays $596. Anything else pays −$100.

As three straights of $33.33: all three winning pays $90.91. Two of three still pays $27.27. One of three loses $36.36. None loses $100.

So the parlay is worth $505 moreon the one result where everything lands, and $64 to $127 worse on the two results where something misses but not everything. Only the total wipeout is a draw. At −110 legs, three of three happens about 12.5% of the time if the legs are independent coin flips — and the parlay’s own price implies it needs 14.4%. That two-point gap is the compounded hold, and it is the whole argument.

Common questions

Are parlays always a bad bet?
Not always, but they are always more expensive. The book’s margin compounds across legs, so a three-leg parlay of −110s carries about 12.7% hold against 4.5% on a single market. That has to be overcome before the shape is worth having.
Why does the middle of the table show a range?
Because "two of three won" is not one outcome. When the legs are priced differently, which two won changes the payout. The range shows the best and worst version of that count.
What about same-game parlays?
They break the arithmetic in both directions. Correlated legs mean the combined price is not the true probability of the ticket — and books know this, which is why same-game parlays are priced with even more margin than ordinary ones.
Is there a case for parlaying?
Yes, two of them. If you have a genuine edge on every leg, the edges compound too, and the parlay can be the higher-EV bet. And a small stake on a long payout is a legitimate preference — just not one that should be confused with a value argument.
Does this tell me which one to bet?
No. It shows what each pays at every result. Which is better depends on how likely those results are, and that is your estimate to make — the calculator will not invent probabilities for your selections.

The guide behind this calculator

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For informational and analytical purposes only. These tools do not predict outcomes and do not recommend wagers.