Dutching Calculator
Back several selections in the same event and get paid the same amount whichever one wins.
Split across the selections so each winner returns the same.
Return if any of them wins
$137.70
+$37.70 on $100.00 staked — the same whichever one comes in. Backing 3 selections is effectively one bet at 1.377, and it only wins if one of them does.
- Profit
- +$37.70
- Return on stake
- 37.70%
- Effective price
- 1.377
- Combined implied chance
- 72.62%
- Loses if
- none of them wins
- After cent rounding
- +$37.69
What the whole position is worth as a single bet.
The book's implied chance that one of them wins — margin included, so it overstates the real chance.
Dutching removes the choice between selections. It does not remove the risk.
| Selection | Decimal | Share | Stake | Returns | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selection 1 | 3.000 | 45.9% | $45.90 | $137.70 | +$37.70 |
| Selection 2 | 4.000 | 34.4% | $34.43 | $137.72 | +$37.72 |
| Selection 3 | 7.000 | 19.7% | $19.67 | $137.69 | +$37.69 |
These prices sum to under 100%, so this is an arbitrage rather than ordinary dutching — check the arbitrage calculator for what that means in practice. The selections must be mutually exclusive: at most one can win.
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What is dutching?
Dutching is backing more than one selection in the same event, with the stake split so that whichever one wins returns the same amount.
It turns “I think it is one of these three” into a single bet with one payout, instead of three bets with three different outcomes. The split is proportional to each price’s implied probability, so shorter prices take a larger share.
The name comes from Dutch Schultz, the New York gangster whose accountant reportedly used the method at the racetrack. It spreads a bet; it does not remove the risk — if none of your selections wins, the whole stake is gone.
How it works
Dutching is backing more than one outcome in the same event, with the stake split so that every winning selection returns an identical amount. It turns “I think it is one of these three” into a single bet with one payout, rather than three bets with three different results.
The split is proportional to each selection’s implied probability: shorter prices take a bigger share, because they need less to reach the same return. Add the implied probabilities up and you get the combined chance the book gives to your group winning — and one over that number is the effective price you are taking.
That effective price is the honest way to judge whether the bet is worth making. Dutching three selections is one bet at one price, and it deserves the same scrutiny as any other price: does your estimate of the group’s chances beat what you are being paid?
The thing to be clear about is the downside, because equal returns invite the feeling that something has been made safe. Nothing has. When none of your selections wins you lose the entire stake, and since you are paying the book’s margin on every selection you back, covering more of the field makes that margin worse rather than better. Dutching every runner in a race is a guaranteed loss of exactly the book’s hold. It is only worth doing when you genuinely have an opinion about a group.
The formula
market total = Σ (1 / decimalᵢ) weightᵢ = (1 / decimalᵢ) / market total stakeᵢ = total stake × weightᵢ return = total stake / market total (same for every winner) profit = return − total stake effective price = 1 / market total market total > 1 → the book has a margin, profit is negative market total < 1 → arbitrage
Identical to the arbitrage allocation. The only difference is which side of 100% the market total lands on.
A worked example
Three selections at +200, +300 and +600 — 3.00, 4.00 and 7.00 decimal. Implied chances are 33.3%, 25.0% and 14.3%, summing to 72.6%.
On $100 that is $45.90 on the first, $34.43 on the second and $19.67 on the third. Any winner returns $137.70, for a profit of $37.70 — an effective price of 1.377, or about −265.
So the real question is whether one of those three wins more than 72.6% of the time. If you think it is 80%, the bet is worth making. If you think it is 70%, you have found an expensive way to lose money evenly.
Common questions
- Is dutching safer than a single bet?
- It is less volatile, not safer. You win less when you win and you win more often, but if none of your selections lands you still lose everything staked — and you have paid the book’s margin on each one.
- How is this different from arbitrage?
- It is the same arithmetic. Arbitrage is the special case where the prices sum below 100% and the equal return exceeds the stake. Ordinary dutching sums above 100%, so the equal return is a loss when nothing wins.
- Can I dutch selections in different games?
- No. The selections must be mutually exclusive — at most one of them can win. Two selections in different games can both win, which breaks the whole calculation.
- Should I dutch every runner?
- Never. Covering the whole field guarantees a loss of exactly the bookmaker’s hold. Dutching is for when you have narrowed a field down, not for when you want to be certain of something.
- Why do the stakes come out uneven?
- Because the prices are. A short price needs a bigger stake to reach the same return as a long one, so the shares are proportional to implied probability rather than equal.
The guide behind this calculator
Related calculators
- Arbitrage CalculatorWhether a set of prices is arbable, and how to split the stake.
- Hedge CalculatorWhat to lay on the other side, and what each outcome pays you.
- No-Vig CalculatorStrip the bookmaker margin out of a market to see the fair price behind it.
- Bet Payout CalculatorProfit, total return and the win rate a price needs to break even.
For informational and analytical purposes only. These tools do not predict outcomes and do not recommend wagers.