Which side should the bonus bet go on?

The longer one, always. The forfeited stake is a fixed cost, so a longer price generates more profit to hedge against. Putting the bonus on the favourite and cash on the longshot converts far worse and is the usual mistake.

What conversion rate should I expect?

60–75% is typical, and it is driven almost entirely by the margin across the two prices you use. Tight, liquid two-way markets convert best, which makes shopping the hedge side as valuable as shopping the bet.

Is hedging better than just using the bonus bet?

It is lower expected value and zero variance. If you receive bonus bets regularly, using them unhedged on long prices wins over time. If this is your only one, guaranteed cash is often worth more than a higher average you might not collect.

Can I hedge at a different sportsbook?

Yes, and you usually should — you want the best price on the hedge side, and it is rarely at the book that issued the bonus. Just make sure both bets refer to exactly the same market.

Is this against the terms?

It can be. Some books void promotions used in ways they consider abusive, and some restrict which markets bonus bets apply to. Read the terms before committing real money to the hedge side.

What if the event can draw or be voided?

The lock breaks. This assumes exactly two outcomes, one of which must happen. A three-way market or a void rule that returns one leg leaves you exposed on the other.

Bonus Bet Conversion

Back the other side with real money and turn a bonus bet into cash you keep whatever happens.

Bonus bet amount

Bonus bet odds

Put the bonus on the longer side — that is where the forfeited stake buys the most.

Cash hedge odds

The opposite side, backed with real money.

Guaranteed cash

$78.95

78.9% of face value, whichever way the game goes. Unhedged the same bonus bet is worth about $75.00 in expectation — more on average, but only paid when it wins.

Cash to stake on the hedge: $221.05
If the bonus side wins: +$78.95
If the hedge wins: +$78.95
Conversion rate: 78.9%
After cent rounding: $78.95
Unhedged expected value: $75.00

Assumes two mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes and no push — a draw, a void or a cancelled event breaks the lock. Check that your book does not restrict which markets a bonus bet can be used on, and that hedging is not itself against its terms; some books void promotions used this way.

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What does converting a bonus bet mean?

Converting a bonus bet means turning a promotional stake into cash you keep regardless of the result, by backing the opposite side with your own money.

Left alone, a bonus bet pays only when it wins. Hedged, both outcomes pay roughly the same, so the promotion becomes a guaranteed amount — typically 60–75% of its face value.

You give up the higher average return of using it unhedged in exchange for a result you can count on. With bonus bets arriving regularly the unhedged approach wins over time; with one in front of you, certainty is often worth more.

How it works

A bonus bet pays only when it wins, which makes it worth substantially less than its face value and makes that value uncertain. Hedging fixes the uncertainty: put the bonus on one side, back the other side with your own cash, and collect roughly the same amount whichever way the event settles.

The equalising stake is not the usual hedge formula, and the difference matters. An ordinary hedge has to match the original bet’s gross return of S × D. A bonus bet only returns its profit, so the hedge only needs to match B × (D − 1) — a smaller number, and a smaller hedge.

Put the bonus on the longer side. The forfeited stake is a fixed cost, so the longer the bonus-side price, the more profit it generates to hedge against. Reversing it — bonus on the favourite, cash on the longshot — converts far worse and is the most common mistake people make here.

Typical conversion is 60–75%. What sets it is the margin across the two prices you use: the tighter the market, the more of the face value survives. A two-way market with a 3% hold converts considerably better than one with 8%, which makes this one of the few situations where line shopping the hedge side matters as much as shopping the bet.

The trade against not hedging is straightforward. Unhedged, the bonus bet has a higher expected value — you keep all the upside. Hedged, you take less on average in exchange for taking it every time. With bonus bets arriving regularly, the unhedged approach wins over time. With one bonus bet in front of you, certainty is often worth more than expectation.

The formula

equalising hedge  H = B × (D_bonus − 1) / D_hedge

if the bonus side wins:  B × (D_bonus − 1) − H
if the hedge side wins:  H × (D_hedge − 1)
  (the bonus losing costs nothing — the stake
   was never your money)

guaranteed      = the smaller of the two
conversion rate = guaranteed / B

The bonus stake is not returned, so the hedge matches B(D−1) rather than the B·D an ordinary hedge would need. That smaller hedge is what makes the conversion work.

A worked example

A $100 bonus bet on a side at +300, with the other side available at −280.

The bonus bet would pay $300 profit. The equalising hedge is 300 / 1.357 = $221.05 of your own money on the favourite.

If the longshot wins: $300 profit less the $221.05 hedge = $78.95. If the favourite wins: $221.05 × 0.357 = $78.95. The bonus bet losing costs nothing.

So $78.95 guaranteed from a $100 bonus bet — a 78.9% conversion, which is at the good end because these two prices form a tight market. Unhedged, the same bonus is worth $75 in expectation but pays nothing three times in four.

Common questions

Which side should the bonus bet go on?: The longer one, always. The forfeited stake is a fixed cost, so a longer price generates more profit to hedge against. Putting the bonus on the favourite and cash on the longshot converts far worse and is the usual mistake.
What conversion rate should I expect?: 60–75% is typical, and it is driven almost entirely by the margin across the two prices you use. Tight, liquid two-way markets convert best, which makes shopping the hedge side as valuable as shopping the bet.
Is hedging better than just using the bonus bet?: It is lower expected value and zero variance. If you receive bonus bets regularly, using them unhedged on long prices wins over time. If this is your only one, guaranteed cash is often worth more than a higher average you might not collect.
Can I hedge at a different sportsbook?: Yes, and you usually should — you want the best price on the hedge side, and it is rarely at the book that issued the bonus. Just make sure both bets refer to exactly the same market.
Is this against the terms?: It can be. Some books void promotions used in ways they consider abusive, and some restrict which markets bonus bets apply to. Read the terms before committing real money to the hedge side.
What if the event can draw or be voided?: The lock breaks. This assumes exactly two outcomes, one of which must happen. A three-way market or a void rule that returns one leg leaves you exposed on the other.

The guide behind this calculator

What a Free Bet Is Actually WorthA $100 free bet is never worth $100. What it converts to depends entirely on the odds you use it at — and the answer is counter-intuitive.9 min read

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For informational and analytical purposes only. These tools do not predict outcomes and do not recommend wagers.