Moneyline, Spread and Totals: The Three Core Bets
Almost every bet ever placed is one of three: who wins, by how much, and how many. Parlays, teasers and props are all built out of them. Learn what each one costs and most of a sportsbook stops being mysterious.
9 min read
The short answer
- Moneyline: who wins outright. The price does all the work of saying how likely that is.
- Point spread: a margin applied so both sides price near even money — usually −110 each.
- Total: the combined score, over or under a posted number.
- A −200 favourite needs to win 66.67% of the time to break even, not "usually".
- Spreads and totals are the cheapest markets a book sells; that is where the volume is.
- Everything more exotic is these three combined, with the margin multiplied.
The moneyline: who wins
The simplest bet available. Pick the winner; the margin is irrelevant. A one-point win pays exactly the same as a forty-point win.
Because the teams are rarely equal, the price carries all of the information. The favourite pays less than you risk, the underdog pays more, and how much less or more is the market’s estimate of the gap between them.
| Price | Break-even | $100 returns | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| −300 | 75.00% | $133.33 | Heavy favourite |
| −200 | 66.67% | $150.00 | Clear favourite |
| −150 | 60.00% | $166.67 | Modest favourite |
| +100 | 50.00% | $200.00 | Pick’em |
| +150 | 40.00% | $250.00 | Modest underdog |
| +250 | 28.57% | $350.00 | Clear underdog |
The point spread: by how much
Instead of pricing an uneven contest with uneven odds, the sportsbook makes the contest even by applying a margin. The favourite gives points, the underdog receives them, and both sides are then offered at roughly the same price.
Chiefs −6.5 must win by 7 or more Broncos +6.5 cover by losing by 6 or fewer, or by winning both priced −110
The half-point exists to make a push impossible. On a whole number the bet can land exactly on the line and is refunded.
That −110 on both sides is the standard price on the board and the cheapest thing a sportsbook sells: a 4.55% hold, and a break-even rate of 52.38%. Spreads and totals take the most money and the most informed money, which is exactly why they are priced so tightly — see the guide on vig.
A spread bet is a different question from a moneyline bet on the same game. “Will they win?” and “will they win by seven?” have different answers, and a team can be a good bet on one and a bad bet on the other.
The total: how many
A bet on the two teams’ combined score, with no interest in who wins. The book posts a number and you take the Over or the Under, usually at −110 each.
Totals are the market people most often treat as a coin flip and most often bet on feel — a hunch that a game will be high-scoring. They are priced by the same models as everything else and carry the same 52.38% bar.
They are also the market where a half-point matters least predictably. In a sport where scoring is dense, the difference between 44.5 and 45 is small. Where scores cluster on particular margins it is not, which is why line shopping pays more on some sports than others.
Which one to bet
| You think… | The bet |
|---|---|
| They win, but it will be close | Moneyline |
| They win comfortably | Spread |
| They lose, but it stays tight | Spread, taking the points |
| The result is anyone’s but the pace is wrong | Total |
| A heavy favourite is overpriced | The underdog’s moneyline |
The useful habit is to form the opinion first and pick the market that expresses it, rather than looking at a board and finding something to bet. Those are different activities and only the first has a chance of being profitable.
Whichever you choose, strip the margin out before believing the price. A −150 favourite in a −150/+130 market is not saying 60%; once the 3.36% hold comes off it is saying 57.98%. The no-vig calculator does that for any market, and the fair number is the one worth arguing with.
Everything else is these three
- Parlay — several of them on one ticket, all required to win, with the margin multiplied along with the payout.
- Teaser — spreads and totals moved in your favour for a shorter price, still requiring every leg.
- Player prop— a total, applied to one player’s statistic instead of the scoreboard, and priced two to three times more expensively.
- Asian handicap — a spread that can split your stake across two lines, covered in its own guide.
- Future — a moneyline on a season rather than a game, at the widest margins on the board.
Which is the reason to learn the three properly. Every exotic market is a rearrangement of them, and the rearrangement is almost always more expensive than the parts.
Common questions
- What is the difference between the moneyline and the spread?
- The moneyline is a bet on who wins, with the price reflecting how likely that is. The spread applies a margin so both sides price near even money — you are betting on the result relative to that margin, not on the result alone.
- Is betting the favourite on the moneyline safer?
- It wins more often and it is not safer. A −300 favourite has to win 75% of the time to break even, and a −200 favourite 66.67%. Being right about who wins is not the same as being right about the price.
- What does −110 mean on a spread?
- Risk $110 to win $100. It is the standard price on both sides of a spread or total, it implies 52.38%, and that is the win rate the bet needs simply to break even.
- Why do spreads use half-points?
- To make a push impossible. On a whole number the result can land exactly on the line and the bet is refunded; the half-point guarantees a winner and a loser.
- Which bet type is cheapest?
- Spreads and totals in major markets. Both sides at −110 is a 4.55% hold — the tightest pricing a sportsbook offers, because those markets take the most money and the most informed money.